simulating climate change impacts on production of chickpea in zanjan province

climate change which is derived by increase of atmospheric co2 concentration and other greenhouse gases could have considerable effects on productivity of crops in the future. climate change impacts on chickpea yield were investigated and yield maps of dryland areas of zanjan province were provided. investigated scenarios were control scenario, in which simulated current situation, and climate change scenario as direct effect of doubling co2 (350 to 700ppm) and indirect effects (10% reduced rainfall, 4ºc increase in temperature). simulations were done using a simple simulation model of chickpea and geographical information system (gis) approach was used to produce yield maps. finally, grain yield and its variances under different years were assessed to compare with current situation. according to the results, though the future climate condition would have caused an increase yield of 33.4% on average (717 to 957 kg ha-1), yield stability in different years was reduced (an increase of 21.2% in variation coefficient). it seems that the positive effect of doubling co2 on photosynthesis and resultant decrease in transpiration, led to yield gain. the results also showed that increased temperature was the main factor which rise variations in different years. zanjan county with an increase of 46.5% in grain yield showed the greatest response to future climate but its yield stability was reduced by 37.7%. khodabandeh county would have the highest yield in future with 1385 kg ha-1 as well as current condition (1307 kg ha-1).